Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch?

0x2d37b35102d42f555d54a7a91239c7236279a89ace2d3df02cfe46f093cbb0ec

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 0.9% · CLOB volume $2.0k · whales 24h net $6 (2 wallets) · 7d net $7 · 10/14 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

0.9%

Yes

Implied No

99.2%

Volume

$2.0k

CLOB

Traders

188 trades

Yes 0.9%No 99.2%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

$13

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

Buy

$14

Sell

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($6)
•7d whale net still positive ($7)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 0.9% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($2.0k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

10 shown

NOBUY2026-08-04 00:11:36

101.4¢$6

NOBUY2026-08-04 00:11:36

7142.9¢$6

NOBUY2026-08-03 03:42:03

99.6¢$1

—BUY2026-08-03 03:42:03

0.4¢$0

NOBUY2026-07-21 02:29:10

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x5dbc…748c	$20	$20	$0	$-20
0xbd8b…ed0d	$20	$20	$0	$-20
0x9d84…70d5	$13	$6	$6	$0
0x59af…872e	$10	$5	$5	$0

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x993f…3ee3	46	$3.9k	$-2.1k	3
0x8c78…13ed	6	$2.2k	$-41	1
0xcf07…c770	10	$2.0k	$1.0k	2
0x7d26…a7d1	30	$2.0k

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