Multi-outcome · 10 open · 4 closed hidden
Arc FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?
open · $17.7k
66.0%
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch?
open · $8.8k
65.5%
Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch?
open · $2.3k
54.5%
Arc FDV above $3B one day after launch?
open · $941
38.0%
Arc FDV above $2B one day after launch?
open · $1.7k
35.0%
Arc FDV above $4B one day after launch?
open · $2.1k
24.5%
Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch?
open · $2.8k
15.5%
Arc FDV above $7B one day after launch?
open · $510
10.5%
Arc FDV above $10B one day after launch?
open · $518
4.5%
Arc FDV above $20B one day after launch?
open · $2.0k
0.9%
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