Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?

0x25e961b73889e80bb2e8e7e9611aa573cf5f7cae0d7db8a488256cf758f0f1ca

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 55.5% · CLOB volume $12.5k · whales 24h net $2 (1 wallets) · 7d net $94 · 2/6 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

55.5%

Yes

Implied No

44.5%

Volume

$12.5k

CLOB

Traders

125

595 trades

Yes 55.5%No 44.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$94

Buy

$162

Sell

$67

Whales

Bull case

•Market prices Yes at 55.5%
•Whales net buyers 24h ($2)
•7d whale net still positive ($94)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($12.5k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-03 19:14:11

55.0¢$3

YESBUY2026-08-03 19:14:11

45.0¢$2

NOBUY2026-08-02 13:56:29

220.0¢$45

YESBUY2026-08-02 13:56:29

45.0¢$11

—BUY2026-08-02 13:56:29

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xb26c…0eb0	$1.5k	$591	$898	$307
0x8e4f…4594	$815	$560	$254	$-306
0xb003…97e1	$456	$419	$37	$-381
0xb34b…5d0e	$419	$324	$95	$-228

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xb34b…5d0e	73	$1.7k	$-773	2
0xb26c…0eb0	27	$1.5k	$307	1
0xc3fc…484a	36	$1.3k	$-476	2
0x21ff…0d71	31	$1.1k

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