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Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?Active 57 days left

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?

0xbc43a765b1fb2a7ffabf7d57cc64be3754a07f6dbbb657130b520875f204c772

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 23.0% · CLOB volume $31.5k · whales 24h net $335 (7 wallets) · 7d net $1.1k · 2/6 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

23.0%

Yes

Implied No

77.0%

Volume

$31.5k

CLOB

Traders

151

660 trades

Yes 23.0%No 77.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

22.0% → 22.0% (+0.0pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$335

Buy

$447

Sell

$113

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$1.1k

Buy

$1.4k

Sell

$301

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($335)
•7d whale net still positive ($1.1k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 23.0% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($31.5k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-04 01:24:48

78.0¢$18

YESBUY2026-08-04 01:24:48

22.0¢$5

NOBUY2026-08-04 01:20:14

77.8¢$28

NOBUY2026-08-04 01:20:14

128.2¢$30

YESBUY2026-08-04 01:20:14

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xb34b…5d0e	$1.3k	$923	$378	$-544
0xc3fc…484a	$1.2k	$786	$383	$-403
0xf2a6…24b8	$823	$158	$665	$507
0x21ff…0d71	$721	$697	$23	$-674

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xb34b…5d0e	73	$1.7k	$-773	2
0xb26c…0eb0	27	$1.5k	$307	1
0xc3fc…484a	36	$1.3k	$-476	2
0x21ff…0d71	31	$1.1k

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