Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

0xb3c97c349eca27060cbbfa2bc1beec1df512fc90a859f08439318785c461dc86

Bearish lean

Implied Yes 17.6% · CLOB volume $31.2k · whales 24h net $0 (0 wallets) · 7d net $4.3k · 5/5 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

17.6%

Yes

Implied No

82.3%

Volume

$31.2k

CLOB

Traders

186

2,126 trades

Yes 17.6%No 82.3%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$4.3k

Buy

$6.5k

Sell

$2.3k

Whales

Bull case

•7d whale net still positive ($4.3k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 17.6% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($31.2k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-08-03 08:03:54

18.6¢$43

NOBUY2026-08-03 08:03:54

81.4¢$187

YESBUY2026-08-03 08:00:30

18.5¢$6

NOBUY2026-08-03 08:00:30

540.5¢$20

NOBUY2026-08-03 08:00:30

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xa4b3…87b8	$6.2k	$3.5k	$2.7k	$-800
0x6bab…0fe5	$5.5k	$4.2k	$1.4k	$-2.8k
0xc602…7fc1	$4.2k	$3.6k	$561	$-3.1k
0x452d…f886	$3.7k	$2.0k	$1.7k	$-291

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x6139…6b7a	228	$20.2k	$-9.5k	5
0x66d6…50c7	193	$13.0k	$-6.7k	5
0xc3fc…484a	94	$8.6k	$-3.8k	4
0x6bab…0fe5	121	$8.5k

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