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Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?Active 58 days left

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

0x77b0380be9f46471b5383fd5fd0730d666b852c3c1fcc61529e0699a62f45d47

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 37.0% · CLOB volume $146.0k · whales 24h net $1.1k (8 wallets) · 7d net $15.7k · 2/3 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

37.0%

Yes

Implied No

63.0%

Volume

$146.0k

CLOB

Traders

397

6,711 trades

Yes 37.0%No 63.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

36.0% → 37.0% (+1.0pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$1.1k

Buy

$2.2k

Sell

$1.1k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$15.7k

Buy

$30.8k

Sell

$15.1k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($1.1k)
•7d whale net still positive ($15.7k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 37.0% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-04 13:42:08

64.0¢$6

NOBUY2026-08-04 13:42:08

156.3¢$10

NOBUY2026-08-04 10:02:18

161.3¢$52

NOBUY2026-08-04 10:02:18

62.0¢$32

NOBUY2026-08-04 08:38:41

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xe35e…abbb	$18.8k	$10.6k	$8.1k	$-2.5k
0xd44e…67e2	$18.0k	$13.0k	$5.0k	$-8.0k
0x9c98…f4f4	$16.3k	$8.8k	$7.5k	$-1.3k
0x5d37…f007	$16.1k	$9.1k	$7.0k	$-2.1k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xd44e…67e2	83	$28.4k	$-10.3k	2
0xa1c6…bb70	3,100	$28.3k	$-5.3k	2
0x5d37…f007	1,776	$26.7k	$-4.5k	2
0xe35e…abbb	1,826	$25.7k

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