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NATO x Russia military clash by...?Active 88 days left

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

0x2a4fcda5c1598fc8621cf96cabc410f9f23a2d0336c3bff5070a37a663d39e94

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 13.0% · CLOB volume $62.3k · whales 24h net $96 (8 wallets) · 7d net $96 · 3/6 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

13.0%

Yes

Implied No

87.0%

Volume

$62.3k

CLOB

Traders

15 trades

Yes 13.0%No 87.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

13.0% → 14.2% (+1.2pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$96

Buy

$175

Sell

$79

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$96

Buy

$175

Sell

$79

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($96)
•7d whale net still positive ($96)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 13.0% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

15 shown

NOBUY2026-08-04 15:18:05

116.3¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-04 15:18:05

714.3¢$1

YESBUY2026-08-04 09:43:39

14.2¢$8

NOBUY2026-08-04 09:43:39

666.7¢$11

NOBUY2026-08-04 09:43:39

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x6e5f…9d60	$101	$86	$15	$-71
0x20aa…e26b	$61	$8	$53	$44
0x3287…6d91	$29	$26	$3	$-22
0xba38…f74d	$26	$23	$3	$-21

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x3eae…e2ed	71	$168.3k	$-65.6k	3
0xe234…304a	247	$113.1k	$-18.6k	2
0x44c1…ebc1	39	$83.6k	$45.7k	1
0x93fb…3e4a	228	$62.1k

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