0xbbd3a0e2bf9512aca0676b07657e6056a1a7d90efc0d03cff8ad4e84562b4d4d
As of Sep 10, 2026, “Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?” trades at 62% YES on Polymarket with $15.0k total volume.
Bullish lean
Implied Yes 61.5% · CLOB volume $15.0k · whales 24h net $1.1k (30 wallets) · 7d net $2.9k · 4/5 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
61.5%
Yes
Implied No
38.5%
No
Volume
$15.0k
CLOB
Traders
93
410 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
57.0% → 60.0% (+3.0pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$1.1k
Buy
$2.0k
Sell
$837
Whales
30
Last 7 days
Net flow
$2.9k
Buy
$6.1k
Sell
$3.2k
Whales
54
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x34db…1b63 | $6.8k | $3.0k | $3.8k | $766 |
| 0x2128…f203 | $1.5k | $743 | $710 | $-33 |
| 0xbaaa…90a4 | $1.3k | $690 | $649 | $-41 |
| 0xc602…7fc1 | $1.2k | $1.2k | $62 | $-1.1k |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x34db…1b63 | 252 | $13.4k | $1.9k | 4 |
| 0xf08b…517f | 94 | $3.2k | $6 | 1 |
| 0xc602…7fc1 | 40 | $2.8k | $-2.1k | 2 |
| 0x321e…9292 | 34 | $2.3k |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
4 open · 5 total · Event board
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?
open · $15.0k
61.5%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
open · $13.2k
33.5%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?
open · $2.6k
4.3%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?
open · $2.2k
0.4%
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?
closed · $821
0.1%
| 0x1f9e…4f1a | $979 | $559 | $420 | $-139 |
| 0xbd14…76b4 | $870 | $586 | $283 | $-303 |
| 0x82fb…bed6 | $722 | $509 | $213 | $-297 |
| 0x4cfd…bef3 | $624 | $439 | $185 | $-254 |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4 | $553 | $553 | $0 | $-553 |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5 | $523 | $406 | $117 | $-289 |
| 0x8765…ed81 | $504 | $504 | $0 | $-504 |
| 0xb1ca…1705 | $450 | $305 | $144 | $-161 |
| $-893 |
| 2 |
| 0x21ff…0d71 | 34 | $1.5k | $-1.5k | 4 |
| 0x2128…f203 | 19 | $1.5k | $-33 | 1 |
| 0x82fb…bed6 | 37 | $1.4k | $-615 | 2 |
| 0xbaaa…90a4 | 37 | $1.3k | $-41 | 1 |
| 0x1f9e…4f1a | 28 | $1.3k | $-429 | 2 |
| 0xbd14…76b4 | 31 | $1.1k | $-397 | 2 |
