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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Active 149 days left

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

0xd8659b58a90d0d69fb1170f25b2b896871a1328115fd11c6f4cfe2b01a2a8ba0

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 18.5% · CLOB volume $243.9k · whales 24h net $5.6k (22 wallets) · 7d net $45.7k · 3/10 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

18.5%

Yes

Implied No

81.5%

Volume

$243.9k

CLOB

Traders

260

1,351 trades

Yes 18.5%No 81.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

19.0% → 18.0% (-1.0pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$5.6k

Buy

$5.8k

Sell

$269

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$45.7k

Buy

$75.8k

Sell

$30.2k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($5.6k)
•7d whale net still positive ($45.7k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 18.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-04 13:33:26

555.6¢$100

YESBUY2026-08-04 13:33:26

18.0¢$18

NOBUY2026-08-04 11:16:32

555.6¢$5

YESBUY2026-08-04 11:16:32

18.0¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-04 11:13:27

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x122c…fbed	$35.1k	$19.9k	$15.2k	$-4.7k
0x9648…6825	$29.7k	$29.7k	$0	$-29.7k
0xf9b7…60a4	$12.6k	$8.3k	$4.3k	$-4.0k
0xf0ed…47d8	$11.1k	$6.9k	$4.2k	$-2.6k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x9648…6825	385	$227.8k	$-227.2k	6
0xc8ab…6418	316	$157.4k	$-130.7k	4
0xa5fd…36d1	392	$154.6k	$21.9k	2
0x0260…0d88	232	$128.2k

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