Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

0x95fc6a4ed7f6856d26aa7f21b9f902d05c9cf76b616fd3463de4d147f7a9126b

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 21.5% · CLOB volume $1.14M · whales 24h net $23.2k (57 wallets) · 7d net $161.3k · 1/7 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

21.5%

Yes

Implied No

78.5%

Volume

$1.14M

CLOB

Traders

1,016

8,853 trades

Yes 21.5%No 78.5%

Source: markets+gamma+gamma+mv_market_daily · live CLOB mid

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$23.2k

Buy

$48.1k

Sell

$24.9k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$161.3k

Buy

$324.3k

Sell

$163.1k

Whales

200

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($23.2k)
•7d whale net still positive ($161.3k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 21.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-07-21 09:42:30

22.0¢$440

NOBUY2026-07-21 09:42:30

454.5¢$1.8k

NOBUY2026-07-21 09:42:30

78.0¢$190

YESBUY2026-07-21 07:12:25

22.0¢$2

NOBUY2026-07-21 07:12:25

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xc8ab…6418	437	$217.4k	$-175.2k	3
0x453a…81d2	423	$139.5k	$35.1k	3
0x0260…0d88	216	$127.9k	$-99.3k	2
0x8a98…1b92	929	$101.3k

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