Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

0x4567b275e6b667a6217f5cb4f06a797d3a1eaf1d0281fb5bc8c75e2046ae7e57

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 11.8% · CLOB volume $17.44M · whales 24h net $7.1k (28 wallets) · 7d net $35.6k · 37/37 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

11.8%

Yes

Implied No

88.3%

Volume

$17.44M

CLOB

Traders

22,900

188,047 trades

Yes 11.8%No 88.3%

Source: markets+gamma+gamma+mv_market_daily · live CLOB mid

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$7.1k

Buy

$10.2k

Sell

$3.0k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$35.6k

Buy

$72.2k

Sell

$36.5k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($7.1k)
•7d whale net still positive ($35.6k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 11.8% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-07-21 03:44:22

88.3¢$2

NOBUY2026-07-21 03:44:22

113.3¢$2

NOBUY2026-07-21 03:39:52

854.7¢$31

NOBUY2026-07-21 03:39:52

113.3¢$31

YESBUY2026-07-21 03:35:10

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xfedc…6398	31,877	$3.47M	$-3.45M	12
0xc21e…0215	27,171	$3.31M	$-3.29M	21
0x2663…ed1f	14,410	$2.26M	$-2.26M	33
0xb4f2…7862	3,082	$2.20M

Dig deeper with Polydata

Trader analytics, whale flows, Smart Score and live screens — free to explore. Alpha API for automation.

Explore traders View plans