0xb8b3f47f189260847c94ea61c7ee4291a199bf4ff2d25b0ed3ff26417c4bee18
As of Sep 10, 2026, “Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?” trades at 27% YES on Polymarket with $62.7k total volume.
Mixed / balanced market
Implied Yes 26.5% · CLOB volume $62.7k · whales 24h net $2.3k (32 wallets) · 7d net $25.4k · 4/4 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
26.5%
Yes
Implied No
73.5%
No
Volume
$62.7k
CLOB
Traders
201
1,029 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
17.0% → 27.0% (+10.0pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$2.3k
Buy
$4.2k
Sell
$1.9k
Whales
32
Last 7 days
Net flow
$25.4k
Buy
$48.5k
Sell
$23.1k
Whales
160
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x876b…1703 | $11.4k | $5.7k | $5.6k | $-66 |
| 0xedfb…3c1c | $4.0k | $2.0k | $2.0k | $-19 |
| 0xa58d…b9b8 | $3.0k | $2.5k | $494 | $-2.0k |
| 0xb89f…1c44 | $3.0k | $1.8k | $1.2k | $-587 |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x876b…1703 | 170 | $23.0k | $603 | 4 |
| 0xedfb…3c1c | 239 | $19.4k | $7.6k | 3 |
| 0xc8ab…6418 | 87 | $11.0k | $-11.0k | 4 |
| 0xa58d…b9b8 | 142 | $10.9k |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
4 open · 4 total · Event board
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
open · $71.4k
62.5%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?
open · $62.7k
26.5%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?
open · $54.7k
10.5%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?
open · $54.2k
5.5%
| 0x2c39…56dc | $3.0k | $2.0k | $954 | $-1.1k |
| 0x2b9d…95f4 | $2.9k | $2.9k | $0 | $-2.9k |
| 0x34cb…7588 | $2.8k | $1.9k | $858 | $-1.1k |
| 0xbd14…76b4 | $2.5k | $1.9k | $651 | $-1.2k |
| 0xc8ab…6418 | $2.3k | $2.3k | $0 | $-2.3k |
| 0x4c4e…297b | $2.1k | $1.3k | $753 | $-560 |
| 0x9aeb…2729 | $1.8k | $948 | $864 | $-83 |
| 0x64b4…b21e | $1.7k | $1.3k | $427 | $-854 |
| $-5.6k |
| 4 |
| 0x2c39…56dc | 47 | $9.9k | $-3.2k | 4 |
| 0x5cac…58de | 65 | $8.5k | $-868 | 1 |
| 0x9aeb…2729 | 59 | $8.4k | $-3.9k | 4 |
| 0x733c…851f | 82 | $8.2k | $2.2k | 3 |
| 0x7d1b…e75c | 208 | $8.1k | $-6.4k | 3 |
| 0x7d3e…534e | 59 | $7.6k | $-1.6k | 2 |
