0x5840df9420fd17bc2513782e3b7372a4ae09f1e3260c71e450767d9c2a81238e
As of Sep 10, 2026, “Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?” trades at 63% YES on Polymarket with $71.4k total volume.
Bullish lean
Implied Yes 62.5% · CLOB volume $71.4k · whales 24h net $2.3k (37 wallets) · 7d net $15.1k · 4/4 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
62.5%
Yes
Implied No
37.5%
No
Volume
$71.4k
CLOB
Traders
123
586 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
65.0% → 63.0% (-2.0pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$2.3k
Buy
$4.7k
Sell
$2.4k
Whales
37
Last 7 days
Net flow
$15.1k
Buy
$31.6k
Sell
$16.5k
Whales
96
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7d3e…534e | $4.6k | $2.7k | $1.9k | $-827 |
| 0xb637…4c42 | $3.0k | $3.0k | $0 | $-3.0k |
| 0x876b…1703 | $2.6k | $877 | $1.7k | $866 |
| 0x9631…89a1 | $2.6k | $1.2k | $1.3k | $146 |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x876b…1703 | 170 | $23.0k | $603 | 4 |
| 0xedfb…3c1c | 239 | $19.4k | $7.6k | 3 |
| 0xc8ab…6418 | 87 | $11.0k | $-11.0k | 4 |
| 0xa58d…b9b8 | 142 | $10.9k |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
4 open · 4 total · Event board
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?
open · $71.4k
62.5%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?
open · $62.7k
26.5%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?
open · $54.7k
10.5%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?
open · $54.2k
5.5%
| 0x7d1b…e75c | $2.4k | $2.2k | $195 | $-2.0k |
| 0x3594…dc58 | $2.0k | $1.0k | $1.0k | $-1 |
| 0xb89f…1c44 | $1.6k | $514 | $1.1k | $597 |
| 0xcb48…be6d | $1.6k | $986 | $580 | $-406 |
| 0x4c4e…297b | $1.6k | $663 | $893 | $229 |
| 0xeed8…35f0 | $1.5k | $998 | $484 | $-513 |
| 0x2c39…56dc | $1.3k | $436 | $912 | $476 |
| 0xa58d…b9b8 | $1.2k | $1.2k | $0 | $-1.2k |
| $-5.6k |
| 4 |
| 0x2c39…56dc | 47 | $9.9k | $-3.2k | 4 |
| 0x5cac…58de | 65 | $8.5k | $-868 | 1 |
| 0x9aeb…2729 | 59 | $8.4k | $-3.9k | 4 |
| 0x733c…851f | 82 | $8.2k | $2.2k | 3 |
| 0x7d1b…e75c | 208 | $8.1k | $-6.4k | 3 |
| 0x7d3e…534e | 59 | $7.6k | $-1.6k | 2 |
