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Iran leadership change by...?Active 21 days left

Iran leadership change by September 30?

0x094772b3529f455e881a4483eaf1c24266384f55e97c23f24f638f5726ba9920

As of Sep 10, 2026, “Iran leadership change by September 30?” trades at 2% YES on Polymarket with $1.04M total volume.

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 2.3% · CLOB volume $1.04M · whales 24h net $4.2k (18 wallets) · 7d net $233.9k · 5/12 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

2.3%

Yes

Implied No

97.7%

Volume

$1.04M

CLOB

Traders

558

4,924 trades

Yes 2.3%No 97.7%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

2.4% → 2.4% (+0.0pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$4.2k

Buy

$12.1k

Sell

$7.9k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$233.9k

Buy

$672.6k

Sell

$438.8k

Whales

123

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($4.2k)
•7d whale net still positive ($233.9k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 2.3% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-09-10 18:10:24

2.4¢$5

NOBUY2026-09-10 18:10:24

97.6¢$203

YESBUY2026-09-10 18:10:07

2.4¢$20

NOBUY2026-09-10 18:10:07

97.6¢$813

YESBUY2026-09-10 18:06:10

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xd5c1…5280	$450.8k	$250.5k	$200.3k	$-50.2k
0xebd3…446d	$383.7k	$256.1k	$127.6k	$-128.5k
0x97cb…c910	$76.6k	$36.8k	$39.8k	$2.9k
0x3eae…e2ed	$62.7k	$38.5k	$24.2k	$-14.3k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xd5c1…5280	197	$1.32M	$-148.3k	2
0xebd3…446d	109	$786.6k	$-279.6k	2
0x753b…9f35	83	$393.8k	$-6.1k	1
0xb100…6461	341	$228.1k

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