Home/Market/0xa4b952…fda2d3

Iran leadership change by...?Active 52 days left

Iran leadership change by October 31?

0xa4b952e2e0ab85e2949b2f67190d10da6212e030993ad930f55b21adbefda2d3

As of Sep 10, 2026, “Iran leadership change by October 31?” trades at 7% YES on Polymarket with $81.8k total volume.

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 6.5% · CLOB volume $81.8k · whales 24h net $1.2k (29 wallets) · 7d net $5.6k · 5/12 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

6.5%

Yes

Implied No

93.5%

Volume

$81.8k

CLOB

Traders

115

588 trades

Yes 6.5%No 93.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Yes odds · 24h

6.0% → 7.0% (+1.0pp)

Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$1.2k

Buy

$10.8k

Sell

$9.7k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$5.6k

Buy

$22.7k

Sell

$17.1k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($1.2k)
•7d whale net still positive ($5.6k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 6.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

YESBUY2026-09-10 18:33:42

7.0¢$1

NOBUY2026-09-10 18:33:42

93.0¢$13

NOBUY2026-09-10 18:33:39

94.0¢$7

YESBUY2026-09-10 18:33:39

6.0¢$0

NOBUY2026-09-10 18:33:03

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x8afa…adb6	$14.1k	$13.6k	$484	$-13.1k
0xc3db…0f98	$11.4k	$677	$10.7k	$10.0k
0x05f6…25a1	$9.7k	$560	$9.1k	$8.5k
0x97cb…c910	$9.4k	$4.1k	$5.3k	$1.2k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0xd5c1…5280	197	$1.32M	$-148.3k	2
0xebd3…446d	109	$786.6k	$-279.6k	2
0x753b…9f35	83	$393.8k	$-6.1k	1
0xb100…6461	341	$228.1k

Dig deeper with Polydata

Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.

Convert these odds Explore traders Whale feed API