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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Active 151 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

0x5c19f205507ce03ff5f3be08a8090a5969ea6870cc07b902a4ca2e61dfe48fdd

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 34.0% · CLOB volume $2.08M · whales 24h net $5.2k (26 wallets) · 7d net $16.9k · 3/5 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

34.0%

Yes

Implied No

66.0%

Volume

$2.08M

CLOB

Traders

14,004

71,327 trades

Yes 34.0%No 66.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$5.2k

Buy

$8.5k

Sell

$3.3k

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$16.9k

Buy

$26.7k

Sell

$9.8k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($5.2k)
•7d whale net still positive ($16.9k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 34.0% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-01 23:29:36

153.8¢$5

NOBUY2026-08-01 23:29:36

65.0¢$3

YESBUY2026-08-01 22:25:56

34.0¢$102

NOBUY2026-08-01 22:25:56

66.0¢$7

NOBUY2026-08-01 22:25:56

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x2f03…ec6a	$40.0k	$21.2k	$18.9k	$-2.3k
0x9648…6825	$21.7k	$21.7k	$0	$-21.7k
0xc701…920e	$21.4k	$12.1k	$9.3k	$-2.8k
0xb5f2…f61a	$18.6k	$9.1k	$9.6k	$502

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x9648…6825	410	$92.0k	$-91.6k	4
0xdb35…b137	50	$89.9k	$29.5k	1
0x152f…a549	49	$82.6k	$-70.9k	1
0x5eec…f4e2	183	$77.6k

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