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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Active 90 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

0x6c3f1009a0c91ba9f7aae44aeadf86863b0d433b60f7a090fd00c945019aa32f

Mixed / balanced market

Implied Yes 15.0% · CLOB volume $822.0k · whales 24h net $2.3k (14 wallets) · 7d net $17.4k · 3/5 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

15.0%

Yes

Implied No

85.0%

Volume

$822.0k

CLOB

Traders

3,845

18,737 trades

Yes 15.0%No 85.0%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

$2.3k

Buy

$2.8k

Sell

$536

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$17.4k

Buy

$22.0k

Sell

$4.6k

Whales

Bull case

•Whales net buyers 24h ($2.3k)
•7d whale net still positive ($17.4k)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 15.0% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token

Recent fills

100 shown

NOBUY2026-08-02 02:49:51

86.0¢$39

NOBUY2026-08-02 02:49:51

116.3¢$45

NOBUY2026-08-02 00:15:02

86.0¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-02 00:15:02

116.3¢$1

NOBUY2026-08-01 21:42:32

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0x264c…baca	$30.2k	$20.9k	$9.3k	$-11.6k
0xbe48…683f	$27.3k	$20.0k	$7.3k	$-12.7k
0xd286…2322	$22.5k	$10.3k	$12.2k	$1.9k
0x9648…6825	$22.3k	$22.3k	$0	$-22.3k

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x9648…6825	410	$92.0k	$-91.6k	4
0xdb35…b137	50	$89.9k	$29.5k	1
0x152f…a549	49	$82.6k	$-70.9k	1
0x5eec…f4e2	183	$77.6k

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