Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?

0xbdab12a222060b29a0238cbfff86c5108a31ee492ee67be3f292f8697eea7d31

As of Oct 8, 2026, “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?” trades at 38% YES on Polymarket with $3.0k total volume.

Bearish lean

Implied Yes 37.5% · CLOB volume $3.0k · whales 24h net $0 (0 wallets) · 7d net $460 · 10/13 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.

Implied Yes

37.5%

Yes

Implied No

62.5%

Volume

$3.0k

CLOB

Traders

46 trades

Yes 37.5%No 62.5%

Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot

Whale positioning

Last 24 hours

Net flow

Buy

Sell

Whales

Last 7 days

Net flow

$460

Buy

$979

Sell

$519

Whales

Bull case

•7d whale net still positive ($460)
•Market still active / open

Bear case

•Implied Yes only 37.5% — No favored
•Recent BUY tape leans NO token
•Thin liquidity ($3.0k) — wide moves possible

Recent fills

46 shown

NOBUY2026-10-05 13:16:05

270.3¢$22

YESBUY2026-10-05 13:16:05

37.0¢$8

YESBUY2026-10-05 12:51:38

38.0¢$6

NOBUY2026-10-05 12:51:38

62.0¢$10

YESBUY2026-10-03 11:47:23

Largest participants (this market)

Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology

Wallet	Volume	Buy	Sell	Net
0xe0d9…8483	$856	$389	$467	$78
0x97d3…3f3c	$730	$578	$152	$-425
0x51fd…4272	$153	$153	$0	$-153
0xad53…ef24	$115	$115	$0	$-115

Top traders (event)

30d volume leaders across related markets · research only

All traders

Address	Trades	Volume	Net flow	Markets
0x122c…fbed	1,268	$116.8k	$344	5
0xbb98…6d3c	223	$101.0k	$-16.8k	3
0x7c3d…5c6b	324	$82.8k	$-21.2k	6
0xe234…304a	268	$78.3k

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