0xdf8e2dc5860027decbe6164555c3c1c9645c3bd33e16b9dc57ca87125047d4a8
As of Sep 21, 2026, “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” trades at 39% YES on Polymarket with $11.56M total volume.
Mixed / balanced market
Implied Yes 38.5% · CLOB volume $11.56M · whales 24h net $90.0k (122 wallets) · 7d net $421.8k · 6/19 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
38.5%
Yes
Implied No
61.5%
No
Volume
$11.56M
CLOB
Traders
10,909
118,605 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
42.0% → 39.0% (-3.0pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$90.0k
Buy
$159.3k
Sell
$69.3k
Whales
122
Last 7 days
Net flow
$421.8k
Buy
$691.2k
Sell
$269.4k
Whales
377
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3a8a…7699 | $378.6k | $346.3k | $32.3k | $-314.0k |
| 0x58b3…653c | $373.5k | $246.8k | $126.7k | $-120.1k |
| 0xd3a7…3362 | $251.6k | $251.6k | $0 | $-251.6k |
| 0x636c…a2cf | $168.6k | $112.6k | $56.1k | $-56.5k |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x58b3…653c | 1,908 | $2.95M | $-2.50M | 12 |
| 0x13fa…954c | 9,995 | $1.27M | $-1.09M | 14 |
| 0xeb34…7268 | 1,609 | $1.11M | $-970.8k | 10 |
| 0x23d8…0288 | 1,049 | $1.10M |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
6 open · 19 total · Event board
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $11.29M
60.8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $11.56M
38.5%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $13.94M
0.9%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $7.61M
0.1%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $7.25M
0.1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $6.42M
0.1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $14.08M
0.1%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $10.46M
0.1%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $10.45M
0.1%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $10.37M
0.1%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $8.00M
0.1%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $7.65M
0.1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $7.54M
0.1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $5.59M
0.1%
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $4.99M
0.1%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $4.97M
0.1%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $4.03M
0.1%
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $3.97M
0.1%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $2.42M
0.1%
| 0xeb34…7268 | $148.6k | $117.4k | $31.2k | $-86.2k |
| 0x13fa…954c | $140.1k | $88.6k | $51.6k | $-37.0k |
| 0xfb51…742d | $139.4k | $125.3k | $14.1k | $-111.2k |
| 0x162f…978f | $125.6k | $122.0k | $3.6k | $-118.4k |
| 0x23d8…0288 | $125.4k | $91.8k | $33.6k | $-58.2k |
| 0xbc75…3f69 | $123.9k | $122.7k | $1.2k | $-121.5k |
| 0xc78e…4718 | $108.2k | $64.6k | $43.6k | $-21.0k |
| 0x4930…d78d | $100.1k | $63.9k | $36.2k | $-27.7k |
| $-434.1k |
| 11 |
| 0x2106…4dea | 1,519 | $950.2k | $-947.9k | 18 |
| 0xbc75…3f69 | 1,322 | $949.2k | $-240.5k | 4 |
| 0x56d1…17c4 | 1,082 | $886.0k | $-28.1k | 2 |
| 0x77fb…266c | 477 | $824.1k | $-432.2k | 3 |
| 0x3659…0451 | 2,976 | $819.9k | $-810.9k | 9 |
| 0xdd9e…49b3 | 126 | $764.8k | $-717.0k | 3 |
