Multi-outcome · 8 open · 3 closed hidden

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Volume $486.1kTraders 519Trades 18,117

Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.

Probability ladder · open only

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
open · $56.7k
52.5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
open · $39.8k
29.2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
open · $53.0k
12.0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
open · $34.0k
8.3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?
open · $22.7k
1.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?
open · $50.4k
0.8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?
open · $29.6k
0.8%

Probability ladder · open only

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