Multi-outcome · 11 open
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Probability ladder of open child markets only. Closed / resolved outcomes are omitted. Binary events redirect to /market. Research only — Polydata never executes trades.
Probability ladder · open only
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
open · $14.8k
36.0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?
open · $20.7k
27.4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
open · $17.4k
15.5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?
open · $10.9k
9.9%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
open · $9.0k
5.9%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?
open · $4.2k
3.9%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
open · $4.3k
2.3%
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $4.1k
1.9%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $209.9k
1.6%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $3.4k
0.5%
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