0x9dd4229c1346ba75c83a20b8176a02bae4f16a1dfd37f8b5a413d1ea69d8e03c
As of Sep 21, 2026, “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?” trades at 1% YES on Polymarket with $22.7k total volume.
Mixed / balanced market
Implied Yes 1.1% · CLOB volume $22.7k · whales 24h net $896 (19 wallets) · 7d net $2.7k · 8/11 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
1.1%
Yes
Implied No
98.9%
No
Volume
$22.7k
CLOB
Traders
217
1,448 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
1.9% → 0.3% (-1.6pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$896
Buy
$998
Sell
$102
Whales
19
Last 7 days
Net flow
$2.7k
Buy
$4.0k
Sell
$1.3k
Whales
33
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x21ff…0d71 | $1.5k | $1.5k | $0 | $-1.5k |
| 0x511f…cbe1 | $1.2k | $822 | $381 | $-441 |
| 0x91e5…0947 | $1.2k | $1.2k | $44 | $-1.1k |
| 0xa066…710b | $896 | $53 | $843 | $789 |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x21ff…0d71 | 702 | $32.5k | $-32.5k | 10 |
| 0x88c4…129a | 214 | $16.1k | $-641 | 4 |
| 0x2344…6458 | 354 | $14.0k | $2.0k | 3 |
| 0xa066…710b | 324 | $10.0k |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
8 open · 11 total · Event board
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
open · $56.7k
53.0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
open · $39.8k
28.8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
open · $53.0k
12.0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
open · $34.0k
8.3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?
open · $22.7k
1.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?
open · $50.4k
0.8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?
open · $29.6k
0.8%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $220.8k
0.1%
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $12.0k
0.1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $10.7k
0.1%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $10.1k
0.1%
| 0xf83e…4663 | $769 | $178 | $591 | $413 |
| 0x0781…c4ff | $712 | $356 | $356 | $-0 |
| 0x1d8c…757a | $711 | $612 | $99 | $-513 |
| 0x30fc…510d | $700 | $700 | $0 | $-700 |
| 0x4f1d…8de2 | $623 | $370 | $253 | $-118 |
| 0x5a21…9318 | $576 | $366 | $210 | $-156 |
| 0x0380…073d | $496 | $433 | $63 | $-369 |
| 0xfdd1…1829 | $491 | $477 | $14 | $-462 |
| $3.1k |
| 6 |
| 0x511f…cbe1 | 257 | $9.5k | $-7.5k | 11 |
| 0x1a86…4683 | 116 | $8.6k | $7.0k | 2 |
| 0x0a9c…d552 | 167 | $8.0k | $308 | 3 |
| 0xfd59…0231 | 299 | $7.9k | $-3.2k | 3 |
| 0xeb49…693e | 150 | $7.8k | $2.1k | 3 |
| 0x460a…d738 | 524 | $7.6k | $-2.9k | 3 |
