0x5d5b8feb963ddcc0f4688f7ac0c0d375f99945b7a07155d60cd1a306c6b3054b
As of Sep 21, 2026, “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?” trades at 53% YES on Polymarket with $56.7k total volume.
Bullish lean
Implied Yes 52.5% · CLOB volume $56.7k · whales 24h net $2.2k (30 wallets) · 7d net $8.5k · 8/11 related markets still open · recent tape leans NO.
Implied Yes
52.5%
Yes
Implied No
47.5%
No
Volume
$56.7k
CLOB
Traders
414
2,868 trades
Live mid price · Polymarket snapshot
Yes odds · 24h
51.0% → 53.0% (+2.0pp)
Hourly Yes-side fills · research sparkline, not a trading chart
Last 24 hours
Net flow
$2.2k
Buy
$4.2k
Sell
$2.0k
Whales
30
Last 7 days
Net flow
$8.5k
Buy
$16.9k
Sell
$8.4k
Whales
93
Ranked by 30d traded volume — analytics proxy, not a share inventory. Methodology
| Wallet | Volume | Buy | Sell | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x21ff…0d71 | $6.0k | $6.0k | $0 | $-6.0k |
| 0x88c4…129a | $4.5k | $1.6k | $2.9k | $1.3k |
| 0x460a…d738 | $3.4k | $2.4k | $1.1k | $-1.3k |
| 0xa066…710b | $3.4k | $1.4k | $2.0k | $676 |
30d volume leaders across related markets · research only
| Address | Trades | Volume | Net flow | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x21ff…0d71 | 702 | $32.5k | $-32.5k | 10 |
| 0x88c4…129a | 214 | $16.1k | $-641 | 4 |
| 0x2344…6458 | 354 | $14.0k | $2.0k | 3 |
| 0xa066…710b | 324 | $10.0k |
Trader analytics, whale flows and Smart Score — free research. We never execute trades. API waitlist for builders.
8 open · 11 total · Event board
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
open · $56.7k
52.5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
open · $39.8k
29.2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
open · $53.0k
12.0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
open · $34.0k
8.3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?
open · $22.7k
1.1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?
open · $50.4k
0.8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?
open · $29.6k
0.8%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
open · $220.8k
0.1%
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $12.0k
0.1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $10.7k
0.1%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
closed · $10.1k
0.1%
| 0x0a9c…d552 | $3.2k | $1.8k | $1.4k | $-382 |
| 0xc78e…4718 | $2.6k | $1.6k | $1.0k | $-548 |
| 0x78b8…769d | $2.5k | $1.3k | $1.2k | $-70 |
| 0xe172…e8e0 | $2.2k | $1.1k | $1.1k | $-39 |
| 0x7e59…7b8b | $2.0k | $1.6k | $388 | $-1.2k |
| 0x39a5…87f2 | $1.9k | $1.2k | $739 | $-455 |
| 0xba28…30a5 | $1.4k | $1.2k | $168 | $-1.0k |
| 0x91e5…0947 | $1.3k | $663 | $590 | $-73 |
| $3.1k |
| 6 |
| 0x511f…cbe1 | 257 | $9.5k | $-7.5k | 11 |
| 0x1a86…4683 | 116 | $8.6k | $7.0k | 2 |
| 0x0a9c…d552 | 167 | $8.0k | $308 | 3 |
| 0xfd59…0231 | 299 | $7.9k | $-3.2k | 3 |
| 0xeb49…693e | 150 | $7.8k | $2.1k | 3 |
| 0x460a…d738 | 524 | $7.6k | $-2.9k | 3 |
